The European Parliament has approved additional tariffs on Russian phosphates, expected to take effect on July 1. These new tariffs will raise phosphate prices in Europe, making the EU more reliant on North Africa for supply. However, due to the current off-season, the full impact will not be realized immediately. Russian producers face a decision: absorb some of the tariff costs to maintain market share, divert exports to other markets, or keep products in the domestic market.

Prices for Russian DAP in Germany and Benelux are around €700/ton FCA, which is a 29% increase compared to the same time last year. Demand is expected to be lower in the second half of the year, as farmers may turn to NPK fertilizers or reduce total P2O5 application. The tariffs are expected to increase by €45/ton starting in July, which will further discourage DAP purchases.

With rising domestic demand, Russian export availability is becoming more constrained. Exports to Asia, Africa, and Latin America, particularly as Chinese supply becomes less reliable, are expected to rise, impacting Russian phosphate supplies to the EU.