The phosphate fertiliser market has recently shifted from a supply-driven rally to a tug-of-war between high production costs and weak affordability. Supply remains relatively tight, with uncertainty over the resumption of Chinese DAP and MAP exports continuing to provide support to the market.

However, elevated sulphur costs have significantly squeezed producers’ margins, while buyers in key markets such as India and Brazil remain cautious and largely adopt a hand-to-mouth purchasing approach. As a result, DAP and MAP prices have started to soften despite limited availability.

At the same time, sulphur prices are coming under pressure as phosphate producers cut operating rates and defer purchases, pointing to some correction on the cost side. Overall, the market remains fundamentally tight, but high prices are increasingly meeting resistance from demand. In the near term, Chinese export policy, sulphur prices and the pace of seasonal demand recovery will remain key factors shaping the market.