Market participants remain cautious but activity through the Strait of Hormuz has begun to show early signs of adjustment following US President Donald Trump's 14 June statement that an agreement with Iran had been reached. While vessel movements have not normalised, AIS data indicates a slight pickup in transits compared with immediately after the announcement, suggesting some shipowners are tentatively testing the water amid still-uncertain security conditions.

Reactions within the trading community remain divided. Some see the news as potentially bearish for freight and fertilizer pricing, with expectations that CFR DAP levels into Pakistan could ease by around $100/t. A trader holding a MAP cargo currently positioned in the Gulf noted that passage through the strait may now become feasible in the near term.

At the same time, underlying cost support persists due to still-elevated sulphur prices globally, even though domestic sulphur values in China have softened following the announcement.

Other market participants remain unconvinced, stressing that firmer security assurances are still required before flows normalise. Demining and clearance operations are expected to last several weeks, limiting any immediate recovery in DAP and MAP shipments. Freight stakeholders are also reluctant to reposition vessels, while wider geopolitical risks, including tensions in southern Lebanon and disputed transit arrangements involving Iran and Oman, continue to complicate prospects for a stable reopening.