Global phosphate markets are increasingly being driven by raw material shortages rather than freight disruptions, as sulphur supply constraints continue to pressure producers across multiple regions.

Saudi producer Maaden is still struggling to secure sulphuric acid after its latest tender for 80,000t for June-July delivery into Yanbu failed to attract enough offers, highlighting tight regional availability. In South Africa, Foskor has suspended phosphoric acid production because of sulphur shortages and is now relying on imported merchant-grade acid cargoes from Jordan.

At the same time, Chinese DAP exports remain effectively absent, while Moroccan supply has also been constrained by limited sulphur availability following disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.

Demand conditions remain mixed. India is expected to issue another major DAP tender in the coming months because domestic supply remains insufficient, while Brazilian buyers continue delaying purchases because of historically high fertilizer costs.

Market participants increasingly believe that supply security and execution reliability are becoming more important than simply achieving the lowest price.