Rising tensions in the Red Sea are increasing risks to global phosphate trade. Recent Houthi missile activity, alongside a fragile two-week ceasefire that appears increasingly unstable, has raised concerns over potential disruption to a key shipping route linking the Middle East, Africa and Asia.

Shipments of DAP and MAP from Yanbu are still proceeding, but risks are rising and some east African importers report delays of around one month. War risk insurance premiums have also edged higher, reflecting growing uncertainty.

Even without direct attacks on vessels, the risk itself is enough to affect freight, trade flows and buyer sentiment. For import-dependent markets already facing high prices, this adds further pressure and supports a firm phosphate market outlook.