Escalating tensions in Middle East since late February have begun to influence sentiment in the global phosphate market. While there has been no direct disruption to phosphate production, concerns over shipping risks and rising energy costs are adding a geopolitical risk premium to prices.

Freight uncertainty in the Gulf region has made traders more cautious, particularly for shipments into South Asia. At the same time, prices across key benchmark markets have moved higher. In India, DAP has recently risen to $725–730/t cfr, reflecting firmer replacement costs and tighter spot availability. In Brazil, MAP prices have increased to around $730–740/t cfr, supported by limited supply and seasonal demand expectations. Meanwhile, Chinese DAP export indications have moved up to $695–725/t fob, although export activity remains restricted.

The conflict is also supporting energy prices, which indirectly raises ammonia production costs and reinforces the upward pressure on phosphate prices. Even without immediate supply disruptions, geopolitical uncertainty is prompting buyers to prioritise supply security, helping keep global phosphate prices firm in the near term.